Our Mid-Year 2018 Economic Update

Believe it or not, we are halfway through 2018! As we reach this mid-year mark, let’s take a look at what our economy has been up to. After a stellar 2017, 2018 has brought a fair share of ups and downs, market volatility, trade uncertainty, and record unemployment numbers. However, as most individual Americans see it, things are looking up. Here’s a bird’s-eye view of our economy as we reach the mid-year mark of 2018.

Confidence Is Up

Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, remains above average, with June increasing to 99.3 points as compared to an average of 86.33 points since 1952. (1) The Consumer Confidence Survey found that consumers’ assessment of current conditions has reached a 17-year high. They also found increases in consumer confidence from April to May in every category, including people’s present situation and expectations. (2)

Business confidence is also up, both in manufacturing and non-manufacturing, according to the national Institute for Supply Management. (3)

The Stock Market Is Up (And Down)

Following the calm upward trajectory of 2017, stocks made impressive gains in January, only to shake investors awake in the following months. February was the most volatile month we have seen since 1996. (4) In fact, just the first quarter of this year saw five weeks that posted bigger declines than the worst week of 2017 and four weeks with greater increases than any week in 2017. (5)

Though things seem shaky compared to 2017, it’s important to note that the volatility that we are experiencing is not an anomaly, but rather within normal range. By the end of May, 2018 would have ranked as the 12th most volatile year out of the last half-century. (6)

Even with the renewal of volatility, stocks continue to trend higher. The S&P 500 is up 3.94% so far this year. (7)Small companies, which are less dependent on international trade, have fared particularly well recently. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks smaller companies, is up 9.56% so far this year. (8)

Trade Risks Are Up

As mentioned above, international trade has moved front and center on the economic stage. Early in the year, the current administration decided to impose a 25% tax on steel imports and a 10% tax on aluminum imports. (9) While China responded with countermeasures, US allies were originally exempt. However, in May, the exemptions expired. Some countries, such as South Korea, Argentina, Australia, and Brazil, have negotiated quotas, or volume limits, to replace the tariffs. The European Union and Mexico immediately stated that they would impose countermeasures or tariffs of their own. (10)

June’s G7 meeting ended on a sour note as the US made clear their dissatisfaction with current trade agreements. The US hopes to renegotiate trade deals to make them more favorable, but whether the move will work or spiral into an economically damaging trade war remains to be seen. (11)

Unemployment Is Down

Another thing that continues to go down is unemployment, which dropped to 3.8% in May (the lowest level since April 2000). (12) Black and Latino unemployment, in particular, has reached record lows. (13) Initial jobless claims have hit their lowest levels in the last 50 years. (14) Employers also surpassed expectations in May by creating an additional 223,000 jobs.

Things are especially looking up for those that earn the least. Recent reports show that those earning the lowest wages are the ones who are seeing the highest percentage of increases in earnings. (15)

The Economy Is Keeping Up

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018. While that is lower than we saw in 2017, it still exceeded expectations. Cheaper commodity prices and reduced corporate taxes helped to drive the growth. (16)

First quarter spending was down, at its lowest rate in 5 years. However, with a still-tightening labor market and the large fiscal stimulus, analysts do not expect low spending to be a pervasive problem. (17) In fact, spending has already begun to pick up as we draw closer to summer. (18)

What Does The Fed Say?

The Federal Reserve has raised rates twice so far this year to 1.75%-2% and is anticipating two more rate hikes before we reach 2019. The new Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, stated in June that the economy has strengthened significantly since 2008. He believes it is approaching a “normal” level where it will not need the Fed to be as active in encouraging economic activity. Overall, he is optimistic, believing the economic outlook for the US is good with a strong economy, strong labor market, and strong growth. (19)

What Does This Mean For Your Money?

While things are looking up as a whole, it’s important to make sure your own personal financial situation is following suit. If you have questions about the state of the economy or want to make sure your portfolio is set up to give you a smooth and direct path toward financial independence, call me at 949-445-1465 or email me at [email protected].

About Jeff

Jeff Gilbert is the founder and CEO of Balboa Wealth Partners, a holistic financial management firm dedicated to providing clients guidance today for tomorrow’s success. With nearly three decades of industry experience, he has worked as both an advisor and executive level manager, partnering with and serving a diverse range of clients. Specializing in serving high and ultra-high net worth families, Jeff aims to help clients achieve their short-term and long-term goals and to worry less about their finances and more on their passions in life. Based in Orange County, he works with clients throughout Southern California, as well as Arizona, Oregon, and Washington. To learn more, connect with Jeff on LinkedIn or email [email protected].

Advisory services offered through Balboa Wealth Partners, Inc. An SEC registered Investment Adviser.  Securities offered through Chalice Capital Partners, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC

Balboa offers advisory services independent of Chalice.  Neither firm is affiliated.

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(1) https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence

(2) https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

(3) https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-perspective

(4) http://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-march-19-2018/

(5) http://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-march-26-2018/

(6) http://flemingwatson.com/volatility/

(7) http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/

(8) http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/russell/

(9) http://fortune.com/2018/03/02/trump-trade-war-tariff-smoot-hawley/

(10) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/31/trump-administration-will-put-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada-mexico-and-the-eu.html

(11) http://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-june-11-2018/

(12) https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-perspective

(13) http://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-june-4-2018/

(14) http://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-april-30-2018/

(15) http://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-june-4-2018/

(16) http://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-april-30-2018/

(17) http://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-april-30-2018/

(18) https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-perspective

(19) https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/13/us/politics/federal-reserve-raises-interest-rates.html

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Why I am Passionate About Being a Financial Advisor

By Jeff Gilbert

So many people find themselves stuck in a career they aren’t passionate about or enjoy. In fact, two-thirds of people are disengaged with their job. I feel incredibly fortunate that I have a career I love and that I look forward to going into the office every day.

There are a few reasons why I am passionate about being an advisor.

1. Using My Knowledge

It’s incredibly fulfilling having the ability to apply nearly three decades of experience as an advisor and executive level manager to build a registered investment advisory firm that does business the right way for our clients and advisors. As I continue my education, I enjoy applying what I’ve learned to benefit those I serve.

2. Seeing Improvement

It’s incredible seeing people’s lives improve because of the financial decisions they make, as well as witnessing the growing sense of confidence that follows. One thing I love about being a financial advisor is having the ability to help others pursue not only their financial goals but also instilling confidence for their future.

3. Helping People

I’m happy when I can help clients achieve their short and long-term goals, worry less about their finances, and sleep well at night. Ultimately, helping clients work toward their financial independence enables me to work toward my career goals and feel satisfied and accomplished each day.

4. Building Close Relationships

Being a trusted advisor whose clients consider me as part of their family is the ultimate compliment. While people may work with a few professionals, like a CPA, lawyer, or doctor, none have the same type of impact as a financial advisor. Often, I serve as a friend, confidant, and advisor for life. The advisor relationship typically stretches through multiple generations, too. Additionally, the entrepreneurial spirit we all have contributes to how we build a business based on personal relationships.

The Role We Serve

As the founder of Balboa Wealth Partners, my passion is to listen to and truly understand what is important to you. Beyond helping you invest, my team and I care deeply about helping you reach your short and long-term goals.

I am dedicated to delivering a collaborative client experience that empowers and guides families to reaching a greater purpose for their wealth. I hope that my deep industry expertise, holistic wealth management services, and innovative technology will provide my clients the confidence to achieve their financial aspirations and manage the wealth they have amassed.

If you are looking for a financial partner who focuses on your unique needs and wealth goals, I invite you to contact me for a chat. I am always open to meet new people and see how I may be able to help. Whether you’ve already started planning for the future or have yet to put strategies in place, I encourage you to reach out to me today for a no-obligation conversation to see how I may be able to help you. Give me a call at 949-445-1465 or email me at [email protected]. Or, you can take the first step now by completing a complimentary risk assessment here.

About Jeff

Jeff Gilbert is the founder and CEO of Balboa Wealth Partners, a holistic financial management firm dedicated to providing clients guidance today for tomorrow’s success. With nearly three decades of industry experience, he has worked as both an advisor and executive level manager, partnering with and serving a diverse range of clients. Specializing in serving high and ultra-high net worth families, Jeff aims to help clients achieve their short-term and long-term goals and to worry less about their finances and more on their passions in life. Based in Orange County, he works with clients throughout Southern California, as well as Arizona, Oregon, and Washington. To learn more, connect with Jeff on LinkedIn or email [email protected].

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What We Do and How We Can Help

Many people think that only those who have mismanaged their money are stressed about finances. However, even the most successful and hard-working families can lack confidence in their financial future.

With nearly three decades of experience serving high net worth families, we understand the stress and concern that can come with facing financial decisions. After working hard throughout your career to build your wealth, you want to make sure it works hard for you in return when you retire and when you leave a legacy. We’re here to help.

What We Do

Balboa Wealth Partners brings together top quality asset management and client service in a boutique setting designed specifically for discerning clients and the advisors who care for them.

We provide personalized plans designed to match your needs and goals. Serving as your financial stewards, our team of advisors work with you to plan for your future while managing and preserving your wealth.

With a diverse team of experienced professionals who maintain a high-touch and personalized experience, we seek to serve as our clients’ most trusted financial consultant and help them make smart decisions with their money. By having a dedicated team of experts on your side, we hope you can feel more confident as you navigate life’s challenges and planning opportunities.

Who We Serve

We specialize in serving high and ultra-high net worth families and 401(k) retirement plans. Our client base is quite diverse in terms of profession, location, and background, but they share a common thread: they appreciate the level of service and care our advisors provide.

The need for successful families to choose between quality advice and quality care has become all too common in today’s wealth management marketplace. An institutional money manager knows what to do with your money but does not take a personal interest in you and your family. While your advisor cares deeply about you and your circumstances, they may not truly know how to manage the wealth your family has amassed.

High net worth individuals have unique needs and require specialized strategies. That’s why they need an advisor they can trust. At Balboa Wealth Partners, the needs of our clients come first. Our clients want a partner who values them, understands the importance of what they have built and demand a person who cares about them and their needs.

Our advisors specialize in overseeing your financial affairs and coordinating the day to day execution of your long term financial plans. We deliver high-touch, responsive service strategically paired with access to institutional caliber investment expertise in a way that eliminates conflicts, reduces fees, and opens the doors to truly comprehensive planning and reporting.

It’s for these reasons and others that we believe clients choose to work with us. They understand that we strive to understand their individual needs and have the capacity to deliver. Ultimately, it’s the relationship and service that differentiates us. Through our services and personalized care, we hope clients can sleep more soundly at night and not worry about their finances.

Working with Us

We believe clients to choose us because they enjoy working with us and they trust our advice. We are genuinely passionate about our clients’ future and financial success. We take pride in the significant role we play in their lives, and we don’t take this responsibility lightly.

Our aim is to deliver uncompromised advice, exceptional investment expertise and outstanding service to our clients. Our intentional approach can support sound investment and financial strategies and help you pursue your goals.

Are you looking for a financial partner you can trust to objectively guide you toward your goals and help you navigate your financial life? We’d love to talk and see how we can help you. Give me a call at 949-445-1465 or email me at [email protected]. Or, you can take the first step now by completing a complimentary risk assessment here.

About Jeff

Jeff Gilbert is the founder and CEO of Balboa Wealth Partners, a holistic financial management firm dedicated to providing clients guidance today for tomorrow’s success. With nearly three decades of industry experience, he was worked as both an advisor and executive level manager, partnering with and serving a diverse range of clients. Specializing in serving high and ultra-high net worth families, Jeff aims to help clients achieve their short-term and long-term goals, and to worry less about their finances and more on their passions in life. Based in Orange County, he works with clients throughout Southern California, as well as Arizona, Oregon, and Washington. To learn more, connect with Jeff on LinkedIn or email [email protected].

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