This is a historical scenario capturing the changes in the economy from Oct 1993 to November 1994, when 10-year treasury rates rose from 5.3% to 8%. This rapid rise in rates hit fixed-income investors hard, leading to global bond losses of 1.5 trillion over a one-year timeframe.
What if North Korea and South Korea fall back into armed conflict as a result of aggression by the new leader Kim Jong Un’s regime? A real conflict in Korea would impact the Asian region as investors shunned risk throughout northern Asia. A serious conflict would result in the collapse of the North Korean regime, […]
What if the Fed takes a slow approach to unwinding the balance sheet, and targets a larger final balance sheet? Janet Yellen has previously indicated the unwinding process could take a decade and may stick with that slow approach Ben Bernanke has advocated that the Fed maintain a long-term balance sheet far larger than the […]
What if the US is unable to make meaningful reforms to Social Security funding resulting in a likely 25% benefits cut in the 2030s? Social security funding unchanged, leading to 25% benefit cut in 20 years. Younger boomers forced to accelerate asset liquidation, pulling assets from the market. Lack of spending compounds demand problems seen […]
What if the S&P has a minor correction and falls 10% over a short timeframe? While S&P and Nasdaq both fall 10%, a short correction has little impact on economic metrics. Treasury rates would fall as investors flee risk. Commodities like oil might fall as fast as equities.
Did you know that four in ten Americans admit that they prefer not to think about money? (1) This isn’t all too surprising as, for many people, finances can seem complicated and overwhelming, and many people suffer from decision fatigue and don’t know where to start. If that’s you, take a look at these five […]
