Mid-Year Market Moves: What You Need to Know

By Jeff Gilbert

Q2 was a mixed bag of economic growth and market activity. Estimates for GDP growth were reduced due to concerns over the labor market and continued caution over the effects of the Administration’s tariff policy, which has vacillated with changing deadlines, percentages, and differing application on imported goods. 

In response, uncertainty and volatility have become commonplace in the financial markets with a severe pullback in equity markets after April 2nd’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement and surprises, only to slowly ascend again during May and June past previous highs. International markets have been robust and have outpaced all other allocation as a sector. The Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities threatened market and economic performance, but the quick ceasefire soothed market anxiety, particularly in the oil and natural resource sectors.

Q2 Performance Review

• U.S. equity markets experienced a free fall after April 2nd (Liberation Day) when double-digit tariffs across the board were announced by the Trump Administration, taking businesses and investors by surprise. These shockwaves were a reason the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell over 13 percent and the Dow fell nearly 11 percent from April 2nd through April 8th. U.S. equity markets recovered somewhat by May and then began an upward trend to exceed the previous highs (set in mid-February) by the end of June.
• International markets also fell in April, but recovered sooner and quicker than the U.S., with emerging markets and Asia leading the way.
• In the bond market, Treasury yields were volatile as well, due to concerns over potential inflationary pressures by the pending Trump tariff policies. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.80% early in the year, then were mixed through the rest of the quarter and had fallen to 4.39% as of June 27th.
• Pullbacks in growth expectations and amended Fed rate cuts lead to lower yields later in the quarter, particularly for lower-duration issues. The yield curve steepened as the difference between 2- and 10-year yields increased above 0.5%. The bond market is also reacting negatively to the estimated trillions in additional national debt in the proposed legislation winding its way through Congress during the second quarter. The U.S. dollar has experienced its largest six-month decline since 1973, falling over 10% against other major currencies.

Sector and Asset Class Performance

• U.S. stock markets reversed their April slide and ended the quarter with new highs. The S&P 500 gained 10.57% since March 31st and advanced 24.5% since the April 8th low. The Dow advancement was more modest, clocking in at just under 5%. Hardest hit in April was the Nasdaq Composite, but the tech-heavy index came roaring back, gaining 33% since the April 8 low and ending the quarter with an 18% gain overall.
• After leading stock indices downward in the first quarter, global growth stocks (powered once again by the Magnificent 7 Big Tech stocks) led the way for market advances in Q2 with a 17.7% gain in the quarter.
• Surprisingly, dividend stocks proved their resiliency in tough conditions, rising 6.5% as of June 20th. Value stocks lagged growth for the quarter, but still maintains the top spot for U.S. stock year-to-date.
• International bonds are the stars of the fixed-income market with U.S. Treasuries and bonds affected by the weakened dollar. Global inflation-linked bonds and investment-grade bonds led all other sectors with 4.7% and 4.4% gains, respectively. U.S. high-yield bonds gained 3.3% for the quarter while range-bound U.S. Treasuries barely budged.
• International markets continued their gains with emerging markets advancing 12.2% in the quarter. Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with the weaker dollar, helped EM gains, with Asia as the top-performing region.
• For the quarter, technology, industrials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples were top-performing sectors. Energy (oil) and healthcare were laggards, each posting more than 6% in losses.

Federal Reserve and Economic Analysis

Market expectations for the Federal Reserve (FOMC) to cut rates have fluctuated. The Fed continues to believe that inflation, while currently under control, has the potential to strengthen on the back of lingering tariff influences. The FOMC believes tariff pressures on prices have not yet worked their way into the U.S. economy and wavering Administration policy regarding tariffs with various countries is causing business and consumer uncertainty. 

Currently, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding expectations for interest rate cuts, despite continued public criticism by the Administration, and in its June meeting, the Fed maintained its “wait and see” monetary policy, with a target range for the Fed Funds Rate still at 4.24% to 4.5%. The Fed still projects two 0.25% rate cuts later in 2025, based on updated economic projections, and downgraded its economic outlook for 2025.

The Fed is closely monitoring the impact of tariff policy and its effects on the economy. Q1’s surprising 0.3% contraction in GDP surprised investors and the financial markets, and as of its June meeting, the Fed is projecting a somewhat lower GDP forecast for the year with potentially higher inflation and higher unemployment. 

Investment Strategy

The uncertainty of the U.S. government’s trade and tariff policies, the falling dollar, and the pending effects of tariff inflation on economic growth (including how the Fed will respond) suggests that caution and wide diversification remain watchwords for investors. Slowing economic growth and pressure from the White House to lower rates may suggest that interest rate cuts could materialize, however, the Fed’s concern about inflation should remind everyone of the adage “Don’t fight the Fed.”

Now that tech has regained the losses of Q1 and value continues to build gains, across-the-board allocations in stocks may be a good choice for most. With international markets leading global advances, some overweight in emerging markets and inflation-linked global bonds may be considered. Fixed-income investors may look to an allocation toward high-yield and inflation-mitigating bond investments to combat any potential inflation that could creep into the economy, if tariff pressures appear in supply costs and consumer pricing.

Overall, although the economy appears resilient, there appears to be enough contradictory evidence over which direction it will take that wide diversification and investment-risk management may be wise through Q3 and the summer months.

Do You Have a Financial Advisor?

Navigating market ups and downs can be challenging, especially in today’s evolving economic landscape. If recent market movements or economic changes have you questioning your financial strategy, now is the perfect time to review your plan. 

At Balboa Wealth Partners, we know the first step is always the hardest. That’s why we begin every investment relationship by getting to know you—your needs, goals, and priorities. From there, our team builds a plan with clear financial objectives for preserving, growing, and ultimately passing on your wealth, all tailored to your unique circumstances.

Ready to take that first step? We’re here to walk it with you. Give me a call at 949-445-1465 or email me at jgilbert@balboawealth.com.

Scottsdale office: 480-801-5010, info@balboawealth.com

About Jeff

Jeff Gilbert is the founder and CEO of Balboa Wealth Partners, a holistic financial management firm dedicated to providing clients guidance today for tomorrow’s success. With over three decades of industry experience, he has worked as both an advisor and executive-level manager, partnering with and serving a diverse range of clients. Specializing in serving high- and ultra-high-net-worth families, Jeff aims to help clients achieve their short-term and long-term goals, worry less about their finances, and focus more on their life’s passions. Based in Scottsdale, Jeff and Balboa work with clients throughout the entire country. To learn more, connect with Jeff on LinkedIn or email jgilbert@balboawealth.com. 

Advisory services provided by Balboa Wealth Partners, Inc., an Investment Advisor registered with the SEC. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Balboa Wealth Partners and its Investment Advisor Representatives are properly licensed or exempt from registration.