By Jeff Gilbert
At Balboa Wealth, we are passionate about bringing uncompromising advice, exceptional investment expertise, and outstanding service to as many people as possible. That’s why we are excited to announce our third office location in Tucson, AZ, and growth at our Scottsdale location. We want to introduce you to our five newest team members who will be serving our Arizona clients.
Meet Ryan
Ryan Robinson, financial advisor and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor℠ at our Tucson location, spends his days applying his investment knowledge and experience to build financial strategies tailored to his clients’ unique lives and goals. He prioritizes building long-term relationships with his clients so he can offer advice and service that truly makes an impact on their lives, both now and in the future.
Ryan has a bachelor’s degree in business finance from New Mexico Highlands University, where he attended on a baseball scholarship. Born and raised in Flagstaff, AZ, Ryan now enjoys calling Tucson home. When he’s not working, you can find Ryan taking advantage of the Southern Arizona climate by participating in friendly (but competitive) rounds of golf. You can also find Ryan and his wife, Gloria, spending time with their young sons, Cole and Jace, trying to find outlets for their considerable energy!
Meet Duane
Duane Shumaker, a Tucson native, specializes in investment and tax planning and is passionate about coordinating his clients’ entire financial picture, making sure every aspect of their financial lives is working together to get them to their goals. Duane is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional and an enrolled agent with the Internal Revenue Service, for which he is authorized to represent taxpayers at all administrative levels. He is managing partner of Shumaker, Wengren, LLC, one of the leading accounting and tax preparation firms in Tucson.
Duane has a Bachelor of Business Administration from the University of Phoenix and a degree in electrical and computer engineering from the University of Arizona. He also works as an adjunct faculty instructor for the University of Phoenix for their CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ program. Outside of work, Duane is an avid supporter of University of Arizona athletics and enjoys scuba diving, bowling, card games, and collecting and restoring classic muscle cars.
Meet Enedina
Also a native Tucsonan, Enedina Grijalva’s role is to assist in assessing clients’ current financial situations and create plans tailored to their lifestyles and goals. After years of working in cosmetology and training under award-winning hairstylist Michelle Helmke, Enedina made a career change to pursue her dream of helping people achieve financial security. She uses her vast experience in customer service and marketing to help strengthen the relationships between Ryan, Duane, and their clients.
On a personal note, Enedina is a fanatical animal lover! When she’s not putting together budget plans for her clients, she can often be found lounging on the couch with her dog, Blu, or playing Animal Crossing. Enedina is known for her inquisitive personality.
Meet Gregory
Gregory Hermes serves our high-net-worth clients at our Scottsdale location. With over 25 years in the industry, Gregory has a plethora of experience in many years of financial planning and investment management. He grew up around family members working in finance and financial advising is in his blood (his great-great grandfather even worked for J.P. Morgan, Sr.).
Originally from Chicago, Gregory was responsible for launching the investment advisory division at Harris Trust in Scottsdale, which was eventually recognized as the top-producing office in the U.S. His time working at upscale banks and serving professional athletes makes him a perfect fit for our Scottsdale client base. He considers his clients like family and is passionate about helping them take their finances to the next level.
Gregory loves spending time with his son. They are very involved in sports, especially baseball, and spend every other weekend at tournaments. Gregory himself was an athlete, playing hockey in his early years and winning state championships in his senior year on the swim and track teams at New Trier High School. He’s heavily invested in his community as a founding Arizona chapter leader of DePaul Alumni Association, board member of a brain cancer charity, a St. Vincent DePaul volunteer, and a parishioner at St. Theresa in Arcadio, where his son attends school.
Meet Ian
Ian Crawford comes to us from JP Morgan Private Bank, bringing a wealth of experience in banking and finance to our Scottsdale team. He is a candidate for CFP® certification and is dedicated to growing in knowledge and skill so he can exceed client expectations. Ian has built his career on the three key pillars of trust, responsiveness, and integrity so that he can provide the highest level of comprehensive wealth management services for his clients.
Originally from Southern California, Ian made Arizona his home after graduating from the University of Arizona with a bachelor’s degree in marketing. Outside of work, Ian enjoys spending time with his wife, Leslie, and their son, Grayson. Together, they love to travel and can’t wait to explore more of the world with their son.
Moving Forward Together
We are proud to be expanding our reach and bringing Ryan, Duane, Enedina, Ian, and Gregory onto our Balboa Wealth team. If you want to experience the difference Balboa Wealth Partners can make in your finances, give me a call at 949-445-1465 or email me at [email protected].
About Jeff
Jeff Gilbert is the founder and CEO of Balboa Wealth Partners, a holistic financial management firm dedicated to providing clients guidance today for tomorrow’s success. With over three decades of industry experience, he has worked as both an advisor and executive-level manager, partnering with and serving a diverse range of clients. Specializing in serving high- and ultra-high-net-worth families, Jeff aims to help clients achieve their short-term and long-term goals, worry less about their finances, and focus more on their life’s passions. Based in Orange County, Jeff works with clients throughout the entire country. To learn more, connect with Jeff on LinkedIn or email [email protected].
Advisory services provided by Balboa Wealth Partners, Inc., an Investment Advisor registered with the SEC. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Balboa Wealth Partners and its Investment Advisor Representatives are properly licensed or exempt from registration.
Securities offered through Chalice Capital Partners, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC.
Balboa offers advisory services independent of Chalice. Neither firm is affiliated.
By Jeff Gilbert
Inflation headlines are the norm these days. It didn’t come as a surprise to many that after months of being told the current inflation crisis was transitory, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that we can expect high inflation to continue through 2022. (1) What may have seemed like a slight inconvenience at first is now becoming a much larger issue as prices keep soaring with no clear end in sight.
If you want to know why inflation is up, look no further than the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought the entire global economy to a complete standstill for the only time in modern history. It’s to be expected that the rebound from such a once-in-a-lifetime event will be just as enigmatic as the event itself.
That’s not to say that the future is bleak, but rather to temper expectations so that we can properly plan for the future and mitigate potential risk. Here are some reasons why inflation has increased in the past year and what it means for your long-term purchasing power.
What Is Inflation?
According to Investopedia, inflation is a decrease in the purchasing power of money, reflected in a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. (2) It can be characterized as persistent or transitory. Transitory inflation (3) is temporary and happens when supply doesn’t meet demand. If left unhandled, it can turn into persistent inflation, (4) which results in a more permanent increase in prices due to a continuous mismatch in supply and demand.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a common measure of inflation. The most recent CPI report from December 2021 suggested that inflation has risen an astounding 7% over the past year! (5) That is significantly higher than the typical 2% rise we see in an average year.
Why Is Inflation So High?
To better understand if inflation will last, let’s take a look at the factors contributing to its rise.
Devalued Dollar
When the COVID-19 pandemic first hit and millions of Americans were furloughed or laid off, drastic economic measures were taken to keep the country afloat. The U.S. government instituted expansionary monetary and fiscal policies in order to pump money back into the economy, increasing the money supply at a rapid rate. It jumped from $15.5 trillion in February 2020 to $18.8 trillion in October 2020, an increase of over $3 trillion. (6)
Though experts agree that these drastic measures were necessary to keep the economy from collapsing, they also agree that the increase in money supply devalued the dollar, meaning it takes more dollars to buy the same item since each dollar is less valuable.
This issue is further compounded by the current trade deficit, which is sitting at a $174.6 billion (28.6%) year-to-date increase. (7) Because the U.S. buys (imports) more than it sells (exports), a devalued dollar relative to other countries’ currencies drives the cost of imported goods up even more. It’s tempting to write these issues off as fallout from the pandemic, but the trade deficit is not a new issue. In fact, the U.S. has seen a deficit every year since 1975. (8) This indicates that the rise of inflation is not a new issue either, it’s just been sped up and exacerbated by the increase in government spending in response to the pandemic.
Supply Chain Headaches
If there’s one thing that’s been in the news even more than inflation concerns, it’s supply chain disruptions. Since the vaccine rollouts and slow return to pre-pandemic life, companies have struggled to keep up with manufacturing and distributing goods. This is because many distribution centers cut their hours when the global economy came to a halt in anticipation of a huge drop in demand for consumer goods. The drop in demand, however, did not come.
As people across the globe spent days, then weeks, then months in their houses, demand skyrocketed for exercise equipment, home goods, and office supplies. Factories increased their output, but the distribution chains have struggled to get everything where they need to be.
Additionally, the increased production has also caused a shortage in raw materials, thereby exacerbating the gap between overall supply and demand for even basic items. As demand continues to outpace supply, prices are driven higher and higher.
Labor Shortages and Increasing Wages
Continued labor shortages are another factor driving inflation. In what is being called “The Great Resignation,” millions of workers across America have quit or considered quitting their jobs as they reevaluate the role that work plays in their lives. (9) As such, many companies are finding that they have to pay higher wages in order to attract and retain employees. These increased costs often get passed through to the customer in the form of increased prices for goods and services.
The flip side of the labor shortage issue is the passage of the $15 federal minimum wage. (10) Many states are following suit with plans to increase their respective minimum wage thresholds. So even if companies weren’t paying more for labor because of the struggle to find workers, they would still be paying more due to increasing minimum wage. Again, these increased costs will be passed through to consumers, and it will be more than just a transitory change in prices since the minimum wage laws are permanent.
How Long Will Inflation Last?
It’s tough to say exactly how long inflation will last, but based on these three variables, it could be a couple years before we return to the target rate of 2%. As our global economy shifts, trade alliances change, and we experience the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems to be an issue that will persist for the foreseeable future.
Let Us Help You Protect Against Inflation
Even if you’re not worried about degrading purchasing power, skyrocketing inflation is still a headache. It’s another variable to account for when it comes to your long-term financial strategies.
At Balboa Wealth Partners, we have the tools and expertise to guide you through a long-term inflationary environment. We will review your investment and retirement plans for proper diversification and risk tolerance levels, ensuring you are properly protected no matter how long this increased inflation lasts. If you’d like to partner with a financial planner who understands your unique needs and inspires you to be more confident in your financial decisions, give me a call at 949-445-1465 or email me at [email protected].
About Jeff
Jeff Gilbert is the founder and CEO of Balboa Wealth Partners, a holistic financial management firm dedicated to providing clients guidance today for tomorrow’s success. With over three decades of industry experience, he has worked as both an advisor and executive-level manager, partnering with and serving a diverse range of clients. Specializing in serving high- and ultra-high-net-worth families, Jeff aims to help clients achieve their short-term and long-term goals, worry less about their finances, and focus more on their life’s passions. Based in Orange County, Jeff works with clients throughout the entire country. To learn more, connect with Jeff on LinkedIn or email [email protected].
Advisory services provided by Balboa Wealth Partners, Inc., an Investment Advisor registered with the SEC. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Balboa Wealth Partners and its Investment Advisor Representatives are properly licensed or exempt from registration.
Securities offered through Chalice Capital Partners, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC.
Balboa offers advisory services independent of Chalice. Neither firm is affiliated.
______________
(1) https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/powell-fed-wrong-inflation-not-transitory
(2) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp
(3) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-transitory-persistent-210149448.html
(4) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-transitory-persistent-210149448.html
(5) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
(6) https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121054/monthly-m2-money-stock-usa/
(7) https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf
(8) https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-the-us-balance-of-trade-1147456
